We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs in settings where output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate allocative efficiency in the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows that their willingness to pay for their...

This paper studies the economics behind the investment in information technologies (IT) by U.S. commercial banks in the past decade. By linking banks' IT spending to their lending technologies, we analyze the distinctive natures of banks' dealings with information across various lending...

Land market incompleteness is argued to have pervasive effects in Sub-Saharan Africa, including on agricultural efficiency, equity, and structural transformation. Yet experimental evidence on land market participation is virtually non-existent. We randomly allocate subsidies for agricultural...

This research examines the determinants of entrepreneurship in the initial transition from agriculture to industrial production and the subsequent transition to higher value exporting in China. Using data covering the universe of registered firms over the 1994-2009 period, we find that...

Are labor markets in higher-income countries more meritocratic, in the sense that worker-job matching is based on skills rather than idiosyncratic attributes unrelated to productivity? If so, why? And what are the aggregate consequences? Using internationally comparable data on worker skills and...

Building on recent advances in the literature on knowledge creation and innovation (notably Carnehl and Schneider (2025), we propose a novel general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates artificial intelligence (AI) as a decision-enhancing technology capable of interpolating between...

Solving complex problems- in medicine, engineering, and other technological domains- often requires exploring multiple approaches, particularly when significant uncertainty exists about which one will lead to success. Conventional wisdom assumes that having many experimenters independently...

Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was a U.S. government-led program to accelerate the development, production, and administration of COVID-19 vaccines. The program cut the typical ten-year timeline needed to develop a new vaccine down to ten months and began vaccinating vulnerable populations within a...

The U.S. government has funded university research for nearly 80 years, with a significant share of this funding supporting the fixed costs of science through indirect cost recovery (ICR). We explain the history, objectives, and mechanics of ICR policy and review key controversies. We also...

During World War II, the U.S. Committee on Medical Research (CMR) undertook an integrated, cross-sectoral effort to develop medical science and technology for war, representing the U.S. government's first substantial investment in medical research. Using data on all CMR research contracts, we...