The propositions that monetary expansion lowers short-term nominal interest rates (the liquidity effect), and that monetary policy does not have long-run real effects (long-run neutrality), are widely accepted, yet to date the empirical evidence for both is mixed. We reconsider both propositions...

Each of the main explanations of procyclical labor productivity, or short-run increasing returns to labor (SRIRL), is closely associated with a competing theory of the business cycle: Real business cycle theorists attribute SRIRL to procyclical technological shocks, proponents of recent theories...

A number of interest rates and interest rate spreads have been found to be useful in prediction the course of the economy. We compare the predictive power of some of these suggested interest rate variables for nine indicators of real activity and the inflation rate. Our results are consistent...

Recent research has provided strong circumstantial evidence for the proposition that sustained deflation -- the result of a mismanaged international gold standard -- was a major cause of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Less clear is the mechanism by which deflation led to depression. In this...

This paper examines the relationship between inflation, exchange rates, and the pattern of international trade and payments in a small economy with utility-maximizing agents and a transactions demand for money. Fully anticipated inflation has real effects in the model through its role as a tax...

Using a simple case study approach. this paper compares the conduct and performance of monetary policy in six Industrialized countries since the breakup of the Bretton Woods system. Our purpose is to develop fruitful hypotheses that might usefully be explored in subsequent, more formal research....

In this paper, we consider whether there are lessons to be drawn from the experience of the American economy during the 1930's for the current European situation. The comparison reveals some important differences: In particular, the persistence of American unemployment in the 1930's reflected to...

This paper develops and compares nonnested hypothesis tests for linear regression models with first-order serially correlated errors. It extends the nonnested testing procedures of Pesaran, Fisher and McAleer, and Davidson and MacKinnon, and compares their performance on four conventional models...