Recent time series evidence favouring a supply-side interpretation of long-run unemployment in the UK is based on the finding of cointegration between unemployment and wage pressure variables. We show that this is necessary but not sufficient. The key assumptions in recent work, that a single...

We address the usefulness of both fully optimal and optimal rules in a timeless perspective. We prove the existence of a determinate representation, which complements the Dennis (2010) observation that the optimal rule may be written in multiple ways, and note that it cannot therefore be...

In this paper we investigate whether and how far density forecasts sensibly can be combined to produce a "better" pooled density forecast. In so doing we bring together two important but hitherto largely unrelated areas of the forecasting literature in economics, density forecasting and forecast...

This paper extends a standard open-economy New Keynesian model to examine the efficiency of alternative monetary policy rules (both fixed and nonlinear) during a period of financial crisis. A third-generation “balance sheet effect” is made operational through an endogenous risk premium which...

This paper brings together two important but hitherto largely unrelated areas of the forecasting literature, density forecasting and forecast combination. It proposes a simple data-driven approach to direct combination of density forecasts using optimal weights.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate uncertainty in determining foreign direct R&D investment into the UK. Specifically, we examine the impact of the UKs possible entry into EMU, where we exploit the fact that on entry the covariance of the Euro and sterling will...