We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...

This paper investigates the presence and characteristics of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, obtained from Reuters on special...

This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price di erentials for borrowing and lending services (`one-way arbitrage'). Using a unique data set for three major capital and...

This paper analyzes how monetary policy responds to exchange rate movements in open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. We address this issue using a structural VAR model that is identified using a combination of...

This paper investigates the empirical relation between order flow and macroeconomic information in the foreign exchange market, and the ability of microstructure models based on order flow to outperform a naive random walk benchmark. If order flow reflects heterogeneous beliefs about...

Exchange rate stability was defined as one of the prerequisites for monetary integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a selected group of European Union countries (the...

In this paper I argue that political-economy considerations –and in particular the identity of the reformers- are central to understanding the Argentine crisis. During the 90´s the main political parties remained attached to populism, and no strong party emerged at the center of the political...

In an influential paper Engel (1999. Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes, Journal of Political Economy 107, 507-538) argues that essentially all the flctuations in the real exchange rate can be attributed to fluctuations in the relative price of traded goods, and that only a small...

We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying shocks to interest rates and house prices by using a combination of short-run and long-run...

Dornbusch's exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting. This puzzling result has been viewed by some researchers as...