Showing 1 - 10 of 47
The development of models for variables sampled at di¤erent frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835415
autoregressive component. First, we compare the forecasting performance of the different MIDAS models in Monte Carlo simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835403
from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976646
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way … nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011124200
provides the most reasonable definition of business cycles. The forecasting exercise, where the models are augmented with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835410
deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835414
individual densities using linear and logarithmic combination methods. The suite consists of linear forecasting models with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063103
A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of … studies of this forecasting strategy exclude Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, despite the widespread use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008514719
-varying parameter specification in density forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516805
Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008773901