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A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update

Stone, Andrew; Wheatley, Troy; Wilkinson, Louise - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2005

Almost a decade ago David Gruen and Geoff Shuetrim constructed a small macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. A comprehensive description of this model was subsequently provided by Beechey <em>et al</em> (2000). Since that time, however, the model has continued to evolve. This paper provides an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423570

A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy

Beechey, Meredith; Bharucha, Nargis; Cagliarini, Adam; … - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2000

This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations – for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125144

Forecasting with Factors: The Accuracy of Timeliness

Gillitzer, Christian; Kearns, Jonathan - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2007

This paper demonstrates that factor-based forecasts for key Australian macroeconomic series can outperform standard time-series benchmarks. In practice, however, the advantages of using large panels of data to construct the factors typically comes at the cost of using less timely series, thereby...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005398652

Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?

Kent, Christopher; Smith, Kylie; Holloway, James - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2005

The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though less agreement has been reached about the causes of this decline. In this paper, we use a panel of data from 20 OECD countries to see if there is a role for various indicators of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423569

Real-time National Accounts Data

Stone, Andrew; Wardrop, Sharon - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2002

Quarterly national accounts data are amongst the most important and eagerly awaited economic information available, with estimates of recent growth regarded as a key summary indicator of the current health of the Australian economy. Official estimates of quarterly output are, however, subject to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125145

The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves

Robinson, Tim; Stone, Andrew; Zyl, Marileze van - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2003

near-term forecasting, as well as econometric methods (such as mark-up models of inflation, which have been found to … forecasting which is sometimes considered is the use of Phillips curves based on estimates of the output gap. This paper suggests … benchmark forecasting approaches as an autoregressive (AR) model of inflation or a random walk assumption. It appears that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005426730

Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy

Brouwer, Gordon de; Ellis, Luci - Reserve Bank of Australia - 1998

Whether people form their expectations of the future in a model-consistent or extrapolative manner, has implications … information about inflation expectations – that survey measures of expectations are inconsistent with rational expectations, but … the public believes the bank will adhere to. When inflation expectations differ between groups, the <em>ex ante</em> real …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423502

Australia's Prosperous 2000s: Housing and the Mining Boom

Kearns, Jonathan; Lowe, Philip - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2011

The 2000s was a particularly eventful decade for both the international and Australian economies. There were: two recessions in many countries; the largest international financial crisis since the Great Depression; the ongoing rapid development of Asia; asset booms and busts; and, Australia...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009393020

What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?

Roberts, Ivan; Simon, John - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2001

they may be useful for forecasting. We find, however, that when currently available economic information is appropriately … surveys all provide some, albeit small, contribution to forecasting employment growth. The second question of both consumer …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125139

The Decline in Australian Output Volatility

Simon, John - Reserve Bank of Australia - 2001

There has been a large decline in the volatility of Australian output over the past 40 years. This paper looks at the causes of this decline. Accounting for part of the change have been substantial changes in the inventories cycle. Abstracting from changes in the inventories cycle there have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005426721