We show how simple statistical techniques for capturing critical transitions used in natural sciences, fail to capture economic regime shifts. This implies that we need to use model-based approaches to identify critical transitions. We apply a heterogenous agents model in a standard housing...

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional forecasters. For a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, we compare constant and decreasing gain learning models to simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that...

We focus on syntactic aspects of di¤erential awareness that give rise to contractual disputes. Boundedly rational parties use a common language, but do not share a common understanding of the world, leading to ambiguity in both syntactic and semantic forms. In contractual relationships,...

We introduce heterogeneous expectations in a standard housing market model linking housing rental levels to fundamental buying prices. Using quarterly data we estimate the model parameters for eight different countries, US, UK, NL, JP, CH, ES, SE and BE. We find that the data support...

We formulate a dynamic framework for an individual decision-maker within which discovery of previously unconsidered propositions is possible. Using a standard game-theoretic representation of the state space as a tree structure generated by the actions of agents (including acts of nature), we...

Abstract: The precautionary principle has been proposed as a basis for making decisions about envi- ronmental issues but remains controversial. Using a model of inductively justified propositions about awareness, this paper shows how the precautionary principle may be interpreted as a heuristic...

This paper outlines the evolution and classification of the major works (published books) of Clem Tisdell. To do this it divides these books into six categories. 1. Those focusing on knowledge limitations and, the presence of uncertainty (information economics). These develop microeconomic...

This paper reports on and interprets the results of a survey of visitors to the Jourama Falls Section of the Paluma Range National Park located in Northern Queensland. It reports, amongst other things, on how much knowledge visitors to the site had about it before their visit, the procedures...

Field data are used to illustrate that, other things constant, regression results using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) converge to Tobit estimates as the number of zeros in the regressand decrease. Tobit estimates are theoretically superior to OLS estimates when using censored data. However, if...

After briefly reviewing recent economic theories about the economic welfare consequences of public provision of private commodities, this article examines the cost efficient supply of publicly provided commodities. In the light of the presence of transaction costs and bounded rationality, and...