Showing 1 - 10 of 68
Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860490
In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860742
Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861245
Measuring dependence in a multivariate time series is tantamount to modelling its dynamic structure in space and time. In the context of a multivariate normally distributed time series, the evolution of the covariance (or correlation) matrix over time describes this dynamic. A wide variety of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861261
A primary goal in modelling the implied volatility surface (IVS) for pricing andhedging aims at reducing complexity. For this purpose one fits the IVS each dayand applies a principal component analysis using a functional norm. This approach, however, neglects the degenerated string structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005862108
Risk management and the thorough understanding of the relations betweenfinancial markets and the standard theory of macroeconomics have always been among the topics most addressed by researchers, both financial mathematicians and economists. This work aims at explaining investors behavior from a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005854712
Graphical data representation is an important tool for model selection in bankruptcy analysis since the problem is highly non-linear and its numericalrepresentation is much less transparent. In classical rating models a convenientrepresentation of ratings in a closed form is possible reducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005854715
The calibration of option pricing models leads to the minimization of an error functional. We show that its usual specification as a root mean squared error implies fluctuating exotics prices and possibly wrong prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005854719
Weather inuences our daily lives and choices and has an enormous impact on corporate revenues andearnings. Weather derivatives dier from most derivatives in that the underlying weather cannot be tradedand their market is relatively illiquid. The weather derivative market is therefore incomplete....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939797
A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly availableinformation. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be ofnonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860747