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VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401
This paper derives conditions for the existence of fourth moments of multivariate GARCH processes in the general vector specification and gives explicit results for the fourth moments and autocovariances of the squares and cross-products. Results are provided for the kurtosis and co-kurtosis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612043
This paper presents a general theory that works out the relation between coherent risk measures, valuation bounds, and … theory presented seems to fill a gap between arbitrage valuation on the one hand and single agent utility maximization or … full-fledged equilibrium theory on the other hand. "Coherent" valuation bounds strike a balance in that the bounds can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581108
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919109
Multivariate Volatility Models belong to the class of nonlinear models for financial data. Here we want to focus on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615423
In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility …. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility … persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main emphasis is on models that are similar to previously introduced smooth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621424
We establish a relation between stochastic volatility models and the class of generalized hyperbolic distributions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009577459
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001377689
volatility measures performs best for most series. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, we plot impulse response … functions of the risk premia. -- impulse response analysis ; Market price of risk ; Multivariate GARCH-Models ; CAPM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579172
maturities and moneyness dimension is neglected. In this paper we propose to estimate the implied volatility surface at each … point in time nonparametrically and to analyze the implied volatility surface slice by slice with a common principal … study a p variate random vector of k groups, say the "volatility smile" at p different grid points of moneyness for k …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613597