This paper experimentally studies the impact of uncertainty about bank and borrower fundamentals on loan repayment. We find that solvent borrowers are more likely to default strategically when stricter disclosure creates common knowledge about bank weakness. Borrowers are also less likely to...

The 5th joint SUERF/Bank of Finland joint conference was held in Helsinki on 13 June 2013. The general theme of the conference was to focus on the regulatory reforms after the global financial crisis and, in particular, how structural reforms of banking ("Volcker, Vickers and Liikanen") could...

In his celebrated 1966 Econometrica article, Granger first hypothesized that there is a ‘typical’ spectral shape for an economic variable. This ‘typical’ shape implies decreasing levels of energy as frequency increases, which in turn implies an extremely long cycle in economic...

No consensus has emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. This paper explores several common volatility applications, investigating how the chosen treatment of overnight returns affects the...

We present a new method to examine financial contagion, defined as a sudden strengthening of shock transmission between financial markets. In particular, we develop a correlation-like measure of synchronicity between markets that is straightforward to implement while being insensitive to...

In this paper, we study the aggregated risk from dependent risk factors under the multivariate Extreme Value theory (EVT) framework. We consider the heavy-tailness of the risk factors as well a non-parametric tail dependence structure. This allows a large scope of models on the dependency. We...

This paper studies the extent to which market crashes are predictable for a set of six countries, focusing in particular on possible differences between transition economies (The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and mature markets (UK, US and EU). We estimate a set of individual country and...

The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the stability of a stochastic dynamic system is measured using the Lyapunov exponents. Specifically, we use a feedforward neural network to estimate these exponents as well as asymptotic results for this estimator to test for unstable (chaotic)...

This paper studies the effects of verbal interventions by European cen-tral bankers on high-frequency euro-dollar exchange rates. We find that ECB verbal interventions have had only small and short-lived effects. Ver- bal interventions which are reported in news report headlines are more likely...