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Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data

Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2014

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818991

Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations

Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2012

uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699288

Monetary consequences of alternative fiscal policy rules

Railavo, Jukka - Suomen Pankki - 2004

In this paper we analyse the monetary impact of alternative fiscal policy rules using the debt and deficit, both mentioned as measures of fiscal policy performance in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We use a New Keynesian model, with endogenous labour supply, distortionary taxation and no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207156

Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey

Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2014

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095060

Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies

Christoffel, Kai; Jaccard, Ivan; Kilponen, Juha - Suomen Pankki - 2013

How do cyclical fiscal stabilisation policies affect welfare and government bond risk premia? Using a new Keynesian model we find that the effects of fiscal policy rules on the bond premium and welfare crucially depend on the source of business cycle fluctuations. The overall effect is estimated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818989

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Railavo, Jukka - Suomen Pankki - 2006

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774227

Discretion and the transmission lags of monetary policy

Kilponen, Juha; Leitemo, Kai - Suomen Pankki - 2007

Monetary policy transmission lags create credibility problems for the inflation-targeting policy maker who acts under discretion. We show that if prices react to monetary policy with a longer lag than output, the welfare maximizing inflationtargeting policy implies no policy stabilization of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423712

The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2005

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648940

Optimal fiscal policy of a monetary union member

Orjasniemi, Seppo - Suomen Pankki - 2014

In this essay we study the optimal non-coordinated fiscal policy in a monetary union, where a common and independent monetary authority commits to optimally set the union-wide nominal interest rate. The national governments in the monetary union implement independent fiscal policies by choosing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010819002

The effect of openness in a small open monetary union

Orjasniemi, Seppo - Suomen Pankki - 2010

In this paper we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open monetary union with optimal monetary and fiscal policy, to study the transmission of country specific shocks and associated exchange rate fluctuations. We show that movements of the monetary union’s exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774237