In criminal cases the task of the judge is to transform the uncertainty about the facts into the certainty of the verdict. In this experiment we examine the relationship between evidence of which the strength is known, subjective probability of guilt and verdict for abstract cases. We look at...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>International Game Theory Review</I> (2008), 10, 257-278.<P> This contribution deals with the fundamental critique in Dinar et al. (1992, Theory and Decision 32) on the use of Game theory in water management: People are reluctant to monetary transfers...</p></i>

In this paper the well-known minimax theorems of Wald, Ville and Von Neumann are generalized under weaker topological conditions on the payoff function f and/or extended to the larger set of the Borel probability measures instead of the set of mixed strategies.

The supposed irrelevance of historical costs for rational decision making has been the subject of much interest in the economic literature. In this paper we explore whether individual decision making under risk is affected by the cost of the supplied information. Outside of the lab, it is...

This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Law, Economics & Organization', 2004, 20, 353-378.<P> This paper is concerned with the role of committees in collective decision-makingprocesses in a world where agents must be motivated to collect information. Committees improvethe...</p>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Review of Network Economics' (forthcoming).<P> Agents involved in the formation of a social or economic network typically face uncertainty about the benefits of creating a link. However, the interplay of such uncertainty and risk attitudes has...</p>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2010). Vol. 26(2), 231-247.<P> An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new...</p></i>

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by...

This paper presents a new axiomatic characterization of risk measures that are additive for independent random variables. In contrast to previous work, we include an axiom that guarantees monotonicity of the risk measure. Furthermore, the axiom of additivity for independent random variables is...

Biodiversity prospecting refers to the exploration of the commercial value of genetic and biochemical resources. In this chapter, we study a drug producing pharmaceutical firm (PF) that searches for potentially useful chemicals made by wild organisms in a conservation area. This PF is able to...