This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>Journal of Applied Econometrics</A>. Vol. 19, issue 5, pages 611-636.<P> Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with...</p></i>

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</I> (2008). Vol. 70 issue 1, pages 23-51.<P> This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series...</p></i>

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita incomegrowth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-rungrowth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in...

This discussion paper led to a publication in (W.D. Nelson (Ed.)), <I>Advances in Business and Management</I> (pp. 1-32), New York: Nova Publishers, 2011. In this era of globalization we see an increase in specialization: the production chain issplit up in more and more parts and the production of...</i>

A major question in the globalization debate is whether outsourcing and offshoring activities are beneficial to the home country. This paper investigates the effects on productivity and trade from the perspective of transaction costs, using a recent theory on trade in tasks. A production...

In this paper we explore linkages between financial services tradeand growth. We offer aformalization of the argument that trade, through the fostering offinancial market integration,may yield important long-run effects related to increasedcompetition. The relationshipsformalized here link...

We explore dynamic linkages between financial/banking sector openness, financial sector competition, and growth. We first develop an analytical model, highlighting links between long-run economic performance and services trade, through scale economies and market and cost structures in the...