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This paper addresses the issue of the positive observed relationship be- tween GDP and HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa. We examine the role of the volatility of GDP per capita in lowering the incentives to invest in self-protection and, empirically, in the spread of the epidemic. Using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074010
In recent years, factor models have received increasing interest from central banks and international organizations to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting the French GDP growth rate over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074400
This paper questions the positive relationship between HIV prevalence and income in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we hypothesize that a greater economic instability would reduce the incentives to engage in self-protective behaviors inducing people to increasingly take the risk of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074446
The rise of finance in developed economies is, for a part at least, a response to the provision and use of an ever growing volume of productive capital stocks and to the accumulation of an ever growing amount of financial assets, which is its counterpart. It is, however, far from being only a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074639
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The euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly … these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed serially correlated changes in the inflation target into a DSGE model with … real and nominal frictions. The formal Bayesian estimation of the model suggests that gradual changes in the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011166314
The objective of this doctoral thesis is to put forth the role of psychology in the fluctuations of production, redistribution and inequalities. Our work is centered on two axes : i) the importance of psychology with regards to inequalities in determining individual beliefs about the role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093907
In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099442