This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and...

In this paper, we document the main factors underlying the foreign portfolio inflows to Gulf Corporation Council countries (hereafter GCC) by employing a recently published database of cross-country portfolio holdings by the International Monetary Fund. We find that bilateral factors such as...

In this paper, we document the determinants of portfolio investments to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies by bringing up the role played by market forces, cultural anities, and institutional quality. We classify the GCC economies as host to 35 countries as per the Coordinated Portfolio...

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow...

Responses of inflation and non-oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US Dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural...

This paper extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change...

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

This paper studies the transmission of monetary shocks to state unemployment rates, within a novel structural factor-augmented VAR framework with a time-varying propagation mechanism. We find evidence of large heterogeneity over time in the responses of state unemployment rates to monetary...

Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...

We examine the spillover effects of local and global shocks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-wide sector equity returns. We find the GCC-wide sector returns have asynchronous responses to global and regional shocks. Although the effects of these shocks differ in magnitude across individual...