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Previsão da eficácia ofensiva do futebol profissional: Um caso Português

Caiado, Jorge; Vieira, Aníbal; Bonito, Ana; Reis, Carlos; … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006

The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648

La modélisation macroéconomique comme processus de communication : pour une formalisation finaliste des équations de comportement

Buda, Rodolphe - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1994

The assumption we submit, because macroeconomic forcasts would be unperfect, is that behavioral equations doesn't enough describe economic behaviours through the capacity of reaction opposite to environment. Further, the forcaster belongs to his search-system, so that, may be, we must now...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836791

A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP

D'Elia, Enrico - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

In general, rational economic agents trade off the cost of waiting for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, on the one hand, and of making use of some model based predictions. Thus, from the viewpoint of agents, predictions and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259931

Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates.

Osman, Mohammad; Jean Louis, Rosmy; Balli, Faruk - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

Output gap is generally used in assessing both the inflationary pressures and the cyclical position of a nation’s economy. However, this variable is not observable and must be estimated. In this paper, we accomplish two tasks. First, we estimate the output gap for the United Arab Emirates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322891

Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts

Durevall, Dick; Loening, Josef - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008683294

A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica

Leon, Jorge - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114384

Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates

D'Elia, Enrico - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

In general, rational economic agents are not in the position to wait for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, and have to make use of some model based predictions, even when agents are not assumedly forward looking. Thus, from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422028

Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks

He, Zhongfang - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

This paper proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive (VAR) model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve information. We allow for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks in parameter values and use information in historical regimes to make...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805826

Forecasting Money Supply in India: Remaining Policy Issues

Das, Rituparna - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

to forecast money supply in India. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587863

Modelling Time Series Count Data: An Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Model

Heinen, Andreas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2003

This paper introduces and evaluates new models for time series count data. The Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model (ACP) makes it possible to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion (variance greater than the mean) and serial correlation. A fully parametric approach is taken and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260271