"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

"Over the past 25 years, significant levels of public debt and external finance are more likely to have enhanced macroeconomic vulnerability than economic growth in developing countries. This applies not just to countries with a history of high inflation and past default, but also to those in...

"Greece and Italy initiated efforts to improve public debt management and develop their domestic debt markets respectively in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. At that time, both countries suffered from large and rapidly growing public debt, excessive reliance on short-term bills held by commercial...

This report assesses Montenegro's public and external debt sustainability under alternative scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes continued implementation of a macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform program, while the low case scenario describes the alternative of a sluggish growth...

The exposure of African financial sectors to global risks, including the likely fall-out of the on-going European debt crisis, continues to be limited. African financial sectors have received much recognition for their steady growth performance and resilience during and after the 2008 global...

The government of Pakistan borrows in the domestic market through a range of instruments, and this market is a critical source of funding for both shorter-term cash management and longer-term deficit-financing. The government has taken actions over the past 18 months that have enhanced the...

The study reviews the macroeconomic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic following the collapse of the Soviet Union, when adjustments were required since output fell by fifty percent between 1991-95, resulting in adverse fiscal consequences, which triggered losses in tax revenues, along with the...