The policy objective of safeguarding financial stability has stimulated a wave of research on systemic risk analytics, yet it still faces challenges in measurability. This paper models systemic risk by tapping into expert knowledge of financial supervisors. We decompose systemic risk into a...

This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...

This paper discusses the role of risk communication in macroprudential oversight and of visualization in risk communication. Beyond the soar in data availability and precision, the transition from firm-centric to system-wide supervision imposes vast data needs. Moreover, except for internal...

In the wake of the still ongoing global financial crisis, interdependencies among banks have come into focus in trying to assess systemic risk. To date, such analysis has largely been based on numerical data. By contrast, this study attempts to gain further insight into bank interconnections by...

The 2007--2008 financial crisis has paved the way for the use of macroprudential policies in supervising the financial system as a whole. This paper views macroprudential oversight in Europe as a process, a sequence of activities with the ultimate aim of safeguarding financial stability. To...

We provide an alternative method for analysis of multifractal properties of time series. The new approach takes into account the behaviour of the whole multifractal profile of the generalized Hurst exponent $h(q)$ for all moment orders $q$, not limited only to the edge values of $h(q)$...

We construct explicitly a bridge process whose distribution, in its own filtration, is the same as the difference of two independent Poisson processes with the same intensity and its time 1 value satisfies a specific constraint. This construction allows us to show the existence of...

The agent-based computational economical model for the emergence of money from the initial barter trading, inspired by Menger's postulate that money can spontaneously emerge in a commodity exchange economy, is extensively studied. The model considered, while manageable, is sufficiently complex,...

Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both of those analyses are concentrated only on Pearson's correlation coefficient and thus intraday lead-lag...

We study quantitatively the level of false multifractal signal one may encounter while analyzing multifractal phenomena in time series within multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The investigated effect appears as a result of finite length of used data series and is additionally...