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A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005098522
A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age population is represented by moving averages. The period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083499
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083585
A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084168
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084243
The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008547902
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516543
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40 years. The second term is inherently related to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005099061
Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005099138
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35 years ? from 1967 to 2003. A microeconomic model linking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005099192