Showing 1 - 10 of 16
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678205
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010628220
Recent years have seen an unprecedented rise of the role that technology plays in all aspects of human activities. Unavoidably, technology has heavily entered the Capital Markets trading space, to the extent that all major exchanges are now trading exclusively using electronic platforms. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272616
In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010751895
We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by using 49 industry index time series computed by K. French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010668465
The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011106635
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time to maturity buckets, we propose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067176
We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric Brownian motion, whose diffusion coefficient is expressed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005098564
We consider the problem of option pricing under stochastic volatility models, focusing on the linear approximation of the two processes known as exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Stein-Stein. Indeed, we show they admit the same limit dynamics in the regime of low fluctuations of the volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005099058
In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian methodology for Value-at-Risk computation based on parametric Product Partition Models. Value-at-Risk is a standard tool to measure and control the market risk of an asset or a portfolio, and it is also required for regulatory purposes. Its popularity is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084167