Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2006
This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach. Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors...