A Bayesian prior predictive analysis is conducted on a suite of models to assess the probability that a model and corresponding prior distributions bias results toward a specific range of fiscal multipliers. We examine a wide range of DSGE models commonly used to estimate fiscal multipliers,...

We examine when government debt crowds out investment for the U.S. economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with a detailed fiscal specification. The estimation accounts for the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies. Whether private investment is crowded in or out in the short...