A Bayesian prior predictive analysis is conducted on a suite of models to assess the probability that a model and corresponding prior distributions bias results toward a specific range of fiscal multipliers. We examine a wide range of DSGE models commonly used to estimate fiscal multipliers,...

We examine when government debt crowds out investment for the U.S. economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with a detailed fiscal specification. The estimation accounts for the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies. Whether private investment is crowded in or out in the short...

Investigating mechanisms of propagation has been central to the business cycle research agenda since its inception. Recent search models of the labor market fail in generating both the size and the persistence of their of central variables to productivity shocks, as does the RBC model in the...