We develop a stochastic model of random search on the job, with ex-ante heterogeneous workers and firms and aggregate productivity shocks in which firms make state contingent offers and counter offers to workers. The model delivers rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers,...

This paper analyzes the career progression of skilled and unskilled workers, with a focus on how careers are aected by economic downturns and whether formal skills, acquired early on, can shield workers from the eect of recessions. Using detailed administrative data for Germany for numerous...

This paper develops a model of marriage, labor supply, savings and divorce under limited commitment and uses it to understand the impact of major welfare reforms, including the time-limited eligibility in the TANF program. In the model, taxes and welfare can affect whether marriage and divorce...

We develop a model of investment with financial constraints and use it to investigate the relation between investment and Tobin's q. A firm is financed partly by insiders, who control its assets, and partly by outside investors. When their wealth is scarce, insiders earn a rate of return higher...

We quantitatively investigate the capacity to collect revenue when the government is constrained to use non-linear (progressive) income taxes. We develop a life-cycle growth model with individual heterogeneity and endogenous labor supply, and explore the degree of tax progressivity that can be...

We present new data documenting medieval Europe's "Commercial Revolution" using information on the establishment of markets in Germany. We use these data to test whether medieval universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity, examining the foundation of Germany's first...

We estimate the full model using Bayesian methods and allow for both determinate and indeterminate equilibria. Our estimates of the resulting equilibria during the Great Inflation of the 1970s reveal that the Fed’s optimal policy response was seen by the private sector as leading to an...

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (2-digit ISIC) based on the distribution of exports before the reform by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) that much of the growth in trade after trade...

This paper studies health insurance over the life-cycle with adverse selection to analyze the welfare implications of the Aordable Care Act of 2010 that targets at improving the access to health insurance for the uninsured. For this purpose, this study develops a life-cycle model following...

This paper examines the effects of changes in uncertainty of household income on the macroeconomy. Households face substantial idiosyncratic income risk that is up to two orders of magnitude larger than total factor productivity uncertainty, very persistent and varies substantially over the...