Firms expect certain investment expenditures. Firms realize certain investment expenditures. The difference is an investment surprise. With the help of the IFO Investment Survey for the German manufacturing sector we measure firms' (quantitative) investment expectations and firms’...

This paper quantifies the distributional costs of fiscal uncertainty in a neoclassical stochastic growth environment. We set up an incomplete-market model where heterogeneous households face uninsurable idiosyncratic risks in the processes of labor income and discount factor. Aggregate...