The modern theory of monetary policy emphasizes the management of expectations. In New Keynesian models frequently used for policy evaluation it is well understood that it is not so much the current interest rate, but instead anticipated movements in future interest rates that are central to...

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent great recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the...

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: (i) forecasters disagree at all horizons including the very long run; (ii) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...

This paper uses a new and exhaustive dataset on the labor market outcomes of roughly 1,400 household heads surveyed through the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. We use the data to examine the job search behavior of both employed and nonâ€employed individuals. The data have...