The standard approach to 'nowcast' disaster impacts, which relies on risk models, does not typically account for the compounding impact of various hazard phenomena (e.g., wind and rainfall associated with tropical storms). The alternative, traditionally, has been a team of experts sent to the...

In this paper, we identify the main fishing grounds and track the response of fishing vessels' activity to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone during 2012. We use satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to locate fishing vessels...

The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic was the first epidemic of the 21st century to pose a threat to global health and generate considerable panic across the globe. Fortunately, due to the rapid containment of the epidemic, both the harm to the public's health and economic...

The long-term economic consequences of catastrophic disasters are poorly understood. This lacuna is surprising since the long-term effects may be much more important than the short-term emergency phase. In contrast, the policy literature is full of aspirational plans to "build back better" (BBB)...

This paper reviews the patterns of sectoral debts and growth and the mechanisms explaining the adverse effects of debt burdens on growth rates. The empirical analysis covers a sample of 55 emerging and frontier market economies. Future economic growth is more sensitive to rising household debt...

This paper examines whether prudential policies help to reduce sovereign bond vulnerability to global spillover risk in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). We measure sovereign vulnerability within a risk connectedness network among sovereign bonds. The direct...

We investigate the determinants of the performance of emerging markets (EMs) during five United States (US) Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles from 2004 to 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an EM at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience...

Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma - monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness - this paper examines how policy configurations affect macroeconomic...

The pronounced and persistent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 motivates our empirical analysis of the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals on countries' adjustment to shocks. Our empirical analysis shows that the associations of growth level, growth volatility,...

The paper compares fiscal cyclicality across regions and countries from 1960 to 2016. It finds that more than half of 170 countries analyzed in seven regions had, in more recent years, limited fiscal space, and that their fiscal policy was either cyclical or procyclical. This was particularly...