Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region's fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit...

Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile "distance to distress" measure suggests that any of these countries may...

We reflect state-owned enterprises' (SOE) leverage within the standard debt sustainability assessment framework. Based on company data and the interest coverage ratio as a measure of debt at risk, aggregate baseline projections and fan charts gauge SOE debt as a contingent liability to the...

The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of...