In the official models for projections and policy analysis (used by the Treasury, the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)), many key variables are assumed as a continuation of past trends. By contrast, in our model, these variables are simultaneously...

Financial advisors commonly use earnings replacement rates to assist workers in their retirement planning. Policymakers and analysts use them to gauge the adequacy of Social Security benefits and other retirement income in allowing retirees to maintain pre-retirement living standards. In recent...