There is a large professional literature on the correct measurement of the funded status of and indicated employer contributions to government employee pension plans. But static measures do not provide a quantification of the risk that plans could represent in the future in various possible...

This paper empirically estimates sustainable sovereign debt limits for 27 OECD countries, updating the model in Ghosh et al. (2013). We assess fiscal reaction functions, confirming the fiscal fatigue hypothesis, where gross debt levels exceeding 140-145% of GDP begin to impair a country's...

In the official models for projections and policy analysis used by the Treasury and the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, many key variables are assumed as a continuation of past trends. Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with more sophisticated models, makes certain simplifying...