World production shortfalls and increased speculative activity have been suggested as major causes of recent, dramatic price increases for sugar. A two-region spatial equilibrium model analyzes the U.S. and the rest-of-the-world sugar markets. By systematically shifting the rest-of-the-world...

Causality tests developed by Sims and Granger are fatally flawed for several reasons First, when two variables, X and Y, are uncorrelated, X has no linear predictive value for Y, but X,and Y may be nonlinearly related unless they are statistically Independent, In which case X and Y are not...