This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters:...

We conduct likelihood evaluation of a DSGE model in which firms have imperfect common knowledge. Imperfect common knowledge is found to be more successful than price stickiness ?la Calvo to account for the highly persistent effects of nominal shocks on output and inflation. Our likelihood...