This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices....

This note examines interest rate linkages within the EMS. Cointegration tests suggest the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between German and other EMS interest rates. Bivariate VAR analysis finds that Granger-causality either stems from German to other European interest rates...

We examine the intertemporal relation between government revenue and expenditure in the UK during 1750 to 2004. We pay particular attention to long run trends by applying a battery of unit root and cointegration techniques to the data, and we use a modified Granger causality test on data spans...

In an empirical contribution to the literature of foreign aid, we estimate the impact of foreign aid on democracy in a panel of 93 developing economies during 1971-2010. We find that foreign aid promotes democracy, with the result robust to different estimation methodologies and control...

In this article, we report results from several traditional and more recently developed unit root and cointegration tests, allowing for structural breaks, which indicate that UK government revenue and spending during 1750-2004 were I(1) series and cointegrated, and that the UK public finances...

A common criticism of foreign aid is that it reduces domestic tax effort. Empirical research on the issue has been hampered by the failure to tackle endogeneity issues effectively. We use measures of geographical and cultural distance to donor countries as instrumental variables to uncover the...