Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate...

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical...

The principal objective of this paper is to compare the performance of the Divisia M4 monetary index with the standard Simple Sum measure of broad money in the context of composite leading indicators of inflation in the United Kingdom. Inflation targeting is an important component of current UK...

This article examines the role of the consumption-wealth channel in explaining asymmetric effects of monetary policy changes. Towards this end, we draw upon available literature on the consumption function and behavioural finance to construct a framework for asymmetric effects of monetary policy...

In 1992 the EU monetary authorities adopted a 'harmonized' broad money aggregate. The EMI was subsequently established to promote monetary policy coordination. This paper considers how broad money aggregates might be used to guide EU monetary policy and whether a 'Euro-Divisia' monetary index...