Using the macroeconomic data for 1830-2004 in vector error correction models, we find that the UK stock price was largely in line with the equilibrium level. However, the UK stock price shows large and slow-moving positive or negative deviations from the equilibrium, forming cycles of at least a...

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994 to 2003. The econometrics methodology used is that of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family...