This study analysed forecasts for all US corn, soya bean and wheat categories published within the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE ) reports over the 1987/88 through 2009/10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the USDA forecasters...

Demand analysis requires aggregation of commodities. Some are imposed at the data collection level, leaving some for the estimation level. When data are collected, the implicit assumption underlying the aggregation is perfect substitutability: one gallon of gasoline is viewed by consumers as...