Conventional procedures for calculating confidence limits of forecasts generated by statistical models provide little guidance for forecasts based on a combination or a consensus process rather than formal models, as is the case with US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts. This study...

This study analysed forecasts for all US corn, soya bean and wheat categories published within the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE ) reports over the 1987/88 through 2009/10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the USDA forecasters...

Using individual trader data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Large Trader Reporting System (LTRS) for the period January 2000 to September 2009, this article investigates whether noncommercial traders in the corn, live cattle and coffee futures markets persist in making...