The empirical validity of $b;PPP$eb; as a long-run constraint between India and the US is examined in the preesence of foreign exchange black markets. In a triariate model, the official exchange rate is found to be coinergrated with both the price ratio and the black market exchange rate. Both the...

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999-2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market...

This article provides evidence in support of cointegration among the UK money supply, real output and the price level in the gold standard period, 1871-1913. The series respond to eliminate short run deviations from the long run equilibrium relation of the equation of exchange. Cointegration is...

This study shows that Federal Reserve forecasts of growth in both total consumption and durable spending are generally rational under asymmetric loss, and the forecasts of growth in nondurable (services) spending, while unbiased (biased), fail to be rational. Yet, these forecasts are all...