Previously, it has been shown that the profits from a simple market timing trading rule applied to a portfolio of shares can be affected by the inter-relationships between the returns of the component securities. In this short letter, the results from applying a more sophisticated 'filter' rule...

A number of methods have been suggested to improve forecasts for data sets subject to structural breaks. This article explains why one such procedure, the spline function technique, may not be a natural candidate. An example is given where data that appeared to be well forecast using spline...

This paper complements earlier work by the author that shows that the pattern of information arrivals into the UK stock market may explain the behaviour of returns. It is argued that delays or other systematic behaviour in the processing of this information could compound the impact of...

In this short paper, I show that the characterization of the efficient securities market in Wang (1995) is inconsistent with financial economic theory, and offer a theoretically consistent alternative. By contrast, under this alternative definition of an efficient market, the component...

This article tests whether macroeconomic variables and market sentiment influence the size of momentum profits. It finds that although returns to the winner and loser portfolios are influenced by a range of macroeconomic and market wide variables; momentum profits are influenced only by the...

This paper investigates whether equity market volatility in one major market is related to volatility elsewhere. This paper models the daily conditional volatility of equity market wide returns as a GARCH-(1,1) process. Such a model will capture the changing nature of the conditional variance...

In this paper we investigate the nature of the relationship between stock prices and spot exchange rates using recent developments in time series modelling. We are able to explain why traditional econometric techniques show little correlation between bilateral exchange rates and stock prices....

This study investigates the co-variability of changes in nominal interest rates for the main EC countries between April 1974 and January 1992, using principal components analysis. We find that there is evidence of increased monetary interdependence and greater capital market integration, but...