In evaluating the multiperiod forecasts of the corporate bond yield spread from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), it is shown that the consensus forecasts are generally unbiased and consistently outperform the comparable ARIMA forecasts and are thus, at least, weakly rational.

We utilize a time-series model to examine the interrelationship between marriage and divorce and their connections with macroeconomic conditions for the period 1960 to 2008. Our findings suggest that marriage and divorce are pro-cyclical, although macroeconomic conditions affect divorce only...

This study investigates the unbiasedness and efficiency of the Federal Reserve forecasts of the saving rate for two distinct periods. For 1984--1997, when the saving rate was relatively stable, the forecasts are generally unbiased and efficient. For 1998--2007, when the saving rate experienced...

Monetary authorities, while unable to resolve fiscal imbalances, have to deal with their consequences in formulating monetary policy. This article asks whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is provided with accurate forecasts of the federal budget deficit-output ratio. We show that...

This study asks whether the Brazilian exchange rate (R$/US$) survey forecasts are rational under flexible loss. For 2001--2011, the forecasts overpredict. The bias in shorter-horizon forecasts is due to an inefficient use of information, while the bias in longer-horizon forecasts seems to...

The Survey of Consumers probes consumer sentiment on personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. We focus on the latter category by examining the surveys question ‘Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?’ and the follow-up question...

This article tests the asymmetric information hypothesis using the CPI inflation forecasts of the Federal Reserve and consumers for the volatile inflationary period of 1979-1983. The Fed generally over-predicted inflation, but consumers produced unbiased forecasts with superior predictive...