We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the...

We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the <italic>Wall Street Journal</italic> (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott <italic>et al</italic>. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the <italic>directional accuracy</italic> of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast,...