In the 1970s and 1980s the USA and European economies experienced unemployment rates that persistently drifted upwards. The present paper captures this phenomenon by a simple extension of the hysteresis approach to the natural rate hypothesis of unemployment using a ratchet model. The impact of...

Using a common trends model, a forward-looking 'core' inflation measure is estimated for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the...