The monetary disturbance theory of the Depression, explained by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) asserts that the Depression was so deep and long because the Federal Reserve pursued a tight monetary policy. More recently, Bernanke (1983) has shown that financial market crisis also lowered output in...

A time series measure of expectations is used to demonstrate the existence of an inverse relationship between inflation and real stock prices, even after controlling for output shocks. This provides some evidence against Fama's famous conjecture (Fama, E., 1981, Stock returns, real activity,...