This paper utilizes out-of-sample forecasting experiments to examine whether the yield spread or returns on stock indices provide information content for future real activity in Italy, the UK, USA and Germany. A variable is said to provide information content if it improves the quality of the...

Frank and Jagannathan (1998) compare ex-dividend drop in share price to the dividend paid in a tax-free environment and argue that market microstructure effects may explain a ratio of less than one. This study examines whether the results are supported in the UK gilt market where tax effects are...