This article employs a Fractionally Integrated Vector Error Correction Model (FIVECM) to examine the return transmission between the Australian and New Zealand stock markets and the Australian and the United States stock markets. We augment the FIVECM with a multivariate GARCH model. In so...

This paper focuses on the role of technical analysis in signalling the timing of stock market entry and exit. Test statistics are introduced to test the performance of the most established of the trend followers, the Moving Average, and the most frequently used counter-trend indicator, the...

We investigate whether the US equity market exhibits underreaction or overreaction. More specifically, we study the directional and magnitude effects associated with abnormal market reaction. The directional effect is the phenomenon that an extreme price movement will be followed by a price...

Adopting a multivariate Markov-switching-VAR model (Krolzig, 1997) and a recently developed regime-dependent impulse response analysis technique (Ehrmann <italic>et al</italic>., 2003), this article investigates the dynamic relationships among the stock markets of the US, Australia and New Zealand. Our results...

US dollar is the most widely held currency in the world. In recent years, however, it suffered huge depreciation. In this article, various risk models are used to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in holding the currency. Being a quantile measure, VaR disregards valuable information conveyed by...

With the globalization of financial and commodity markets, it is becoming increasingly important to recognize price linkages between markets beyond national boundaries. Models of futures pricing that incorporate such price linkages into the information set can be expected to be superior...

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the most important centre for spot and futures trading in the main industrially-used non-ferrous metals. In this study, data on 3-month futures contracts for aluminium, aluminium alloy, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc are analysed. The risk premium...

The paper investigates several empirical issues regarding quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with GARCH errors (STAR-GARCH) and STAR models with smooth transition GARCH errors (STAR-STGARCH). Empirical evidence is provided to show that different...

This paper estimates the dynamic conditional correlations in the returns on Tapis oil spot and one-month forward prices for the period 2 June 1992 to 16 January 2004, using recently developed multivariate conditional volatility models, namely the Constant Conditional Correlation Multivariate...

The Risk Premium and Cost-of-Carry hypotheses regarding the pricing of futures contracts are tested using nested and non-nested procedures. Cointegrating relationships among the Australian dollar spot and futures prices, and US and Australian risk-free rates of interest, suggest an...