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Lockdown policies : a macrodynamic perspective for COVID-19

Busato, Francesco; Chiarini, Bruno; Cisco, Gianluigi; … - 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is producing a global health and economic crisis. The entire globe is facing the trade-off between health and recessionary effects. This paper investigates this trade-off according to a macro-dynamic perspective. We set up and simulate a Dynamic Stochastic General...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258268

Learning capitalism the hard way : evidence from German reunification

Triebs, Thomas P.; Tumlinson, Justin - 2016

We develop a model of firm learning in volatile markets with noisy signals and test its predictions using historical German data. Firms' forecasts improve with age. We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580632

Personal insolvency dynamics in Germany and the UK : a SUR-TAR approach

König, Nadja - 2016

This paper analyses the dynamics of personal insolvencies in Germany and the UK, focusing on the recent recession … different approaches to deal with overindebted individuals. In Germany unfortunate households who file on their debt are … Germany, i.e. after an external shock it takes longer for insolvencies to return to their previous level in the UK. In both …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420671

Unoberserved components models for quarterly German GDP

Flaig, Gebhard - 2002

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409368

Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy

Flaig, Gebhard; Ploetscher, Claudia - 2000

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781503

Real wages and business cycle asymmetries : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003

Woitek, Ulrich - 2004

and Germany to condition the relationship between real wages and business fluctuations on the phase of the cycle, it is … general, the evidence for countercyclical wages is stronger in Germany than for the US, but taken together there is no clear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle

Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017

for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) and the three corresponding sectoral stock market indexes. It is found that data with and without seasonal adjustment give mixed results on the long-run interaction between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398919

Labor market institutions and the cost of recessions

Krebs, Tom; Scheffel, Martin - 2016

substantial reduction in the output cost of recessions and a more moderate reduction in the welfare cost of recessions in Germany. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580666

Financial investment constraints : a panel threshold application to German firm level data

Tarassow, Artur - 2014

Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425733