Cyclical asymmetry has been recognized as a non-linear phenomenon in recent studies examining unemployment rate time series. The probabilistic structure of such time series is different during economic upswings and downswings. So, with forecasting unemployment rates in mind, it seems intuitive...

This paper addresses five related questions. What are the ‘stylised facts’ about the behaviour of flows into and out of unemployment and the Unemployment Rate in Australia, especially in recessions? Why does the number of persons flowing out of Unemployment rise in recessions? How does...