We apply a new methodology, modified Granger causality tests, to further analyze the information flows between earnings and forecasts. Our application focuses on the dynamic interaction between reported earnings and analysts’ forecasts. Based on long time series of analyst earnings...

In this paper we evaluate the performance of three alternate default-risk models, seeking to find that measure which performs best, using a comprehensive sample drawn from the Australian equities market. The first two models are option-based models and are derived from Merton's (1974) insight...

In this paper we investigate the contention that the Fama-French (1993) model's ability to explain cross-sectional variation in equity returns occurs because the Fama-French factors, SMB and HML, are proxying for default risk. To assess the default risk hypothesis, we augment the CAPM and the...

Recent studies find evidence that small funds outperform large funds. This fund size effect is commonly hypothesized to be caused by transaction costs. Due to the lack of transactions data, prior studies have investigated the transaction costs theory indirectly. Our study, however, analyses the...

Employing a new proxy for liquidity, this paper examines its impact on stock returns in the context of the Fama-French framework. We augment the Carhart four-factor model with a liquidity factor in our asset pricing tests. Using an extensive dataset drawn from the Australian equities market, we...

Using an extensive Australian sample, we explore two related issues in the context of a default risk asset-pricing factor (DEF) over the business cycle: (a) whether a DEF can explain the size premium in the three-factor Fama–French (FF) model; and (b) whether a DEF has a separate role...

This paper examines the smart money effect on Australian superannuation funds. Specifically, we investigate whether Australian investors make smart choices in selecting funds. We build on previous research which shows that sophisticated investors have the ability to invest in funds that...

Recent theory relates expected returns and covariant risk to the investment decisions of a firm across certain stages of the business cycle. Using the Australian accounting environment that provides a wider scope for the capitalisation of intangible assets compared with the United States, this...

This paper investigates three techniques for the estimation of conditional timeâ€dependent betas: (a) a multivariate generalised ARCH approach; (b) a timeâ€varying beta market model approach suggested by Schwert and Seguin (1990); and (c) the Kalman filter technique. These approaches are...

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our...