An operational macroprudential approach to financial stability requires tools that attribute system-wide risk to individual institutions. Making use of constructs from game theory, we propose an attribution methodology that has a number of appealing features: it can be used in conjunction with...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

Is systematic monetary policy a driver of the forward premium puzzle, i.e. the tendency of high interest-rate currencies to appreciate, thus strongly violating Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)? We address this question by studying a battery of monetary policy rules in a small open economy that is...

We develop a measure of systemic importance that accounts for the extent to which a bank propagates shocks across the banking system and is vulnerable to propagated shocks. Based on Shapley values, this measure gauges the contribution of interconnected banks to systemic risk, in contrast to...

This paper extends the approach of measuring and stress-testing the systemic risk of a banking sector in Huang, Zhou, and Zhu (2009) to identifying various sources of financial instability and to allocating systemic risk to individual financial institutions. The systemic risk measure, defined as...

In the wake of the Asian financial crisis, many regimes in Asia adopted stricter provisioning requirements, as well as discretionary measures, with the objective of increasing provisioning in good times in response to rising levels of risk. Based on a final sample of 240 banks in 12 Asian...

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks...

Motivated by the frequently observed link between commercial property price volatility and banking crises, this paper investigates at a macroeconomic level the determination of commercial property prices and the interaction between commercial property prices and bank lending. We develop a...

We seek to assess the effect of commercial property price movements on the behaviour and performance of individual banks in a range of industrialised economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. Our results suggest that commercial property prices tend to be positively...

This paper proposes a continuous-time framework that explains some stylised facts in recent "twin crises" episodes. I show that access to the world capital market enables the domestic economy to achieve a more efficient allocation of resources. However, the banking sector becomes more fragile...