Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the...

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data spanning 1980-2000. The P model is shown to have considerable empirical support. Thus, the "price gap" or, equivalently, the "real money gap" (the gap between current real...

This paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic behaviour and the monetary policy regime in Hong Kong and Singapore, using data for 1984-2004. We estimate an econometric model, comprising a Phillips curve, an IS curve and an equation for changes in the nominal effective exchange rate...

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982 – 2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standards Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as...

This paper estimates a demand equation for German M3 over the period 1971:1-1989:4, and studies its ability to predict all-German M3 during 1990:l-1992:4 and (a measure of) western German M3 during 1990:l-1994:l. Although the out-of-sample prediction errors appear serially correlated, the...

This paper employs data on short and long interest rates for the G-10 countries, Australia, Austria and Spain to assess the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure, using the Campbell-Shiller (1987, 1991) methodology. Although the EH is rejected in several countries, in all countries...

We demonstrate that average interest rates in the EMU countries in 1990-98, with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992-93, moved very closely with average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the Taylor rule.

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve provides information about the likelihood of future recessions in all countries....

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in , using monthly data starting in 1967: 1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising, output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...